Toronto FC postseason hopes rest with defense

Soccer Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a story that Toronto FC fans have grown accustomed to. A strong start to the season that looks to be leading to the eventual reward of making the MLS playoffs for the first time, only for the team to have a dismal finish and fail to reach the promised land.

The 2010 version of TFC still has time to give that story a different ending, but a few members of the club must improve significantly for that to come to fruition.

Goalkeeper Stefan Frei has been marvelous in net for TFC, but he is also the most overworked keeper in the MLS. Through weekend play, the side had allowed the most shots on net in the entire league.

The midfielders have at times failed to pull their weight defensively, and defenders Nick Garcia and Adrian Cann have occasionally been caught cheating to the tune of several goals, and points in the standings, surrendered.

This affliction was on full display July 31 in a loss to the Kansas City Wizards, where a misguided back header by Cann allowed KC's Teal Bunbury to break in on net alone and beat Frei for the only goal of the game.

At times, Cann's lack of pace has also been his undoing, with the more fleet- footed opposing forwards taking advantage of the former Canadian international player. Cann's current form kept him from being selected to the national team for one of their upcoming friendlies.

Garcia has been perhaps more frustrating to watch, simply because you do not know what to expect from him on a game-by-game basis.

In some fixtures, he shows off his ability to make sound judgements and displays wonderful crossing ability, while in others he makes poor decisions with the ball.

Considering the fact TFC has allowed 26 goals this season, compared to 22 scored, the offense must also do its part in order for the club to succeed and make up for its deficiencies on the back end.

Designated players Mista and Julian De Guzman must live up to their big-money price tags and produce more than they have. After his move from Spain, Mista has been especially disappointing, considering he was supposed to add another dimension to the TFC offense.

Though Dwayne De Rosario and Chad Barrett have done a decent job in leading the TFC attack, the presence of Maicon Santos allowed more flexibility and his full return from injury would make the club more complete.

If TFC hopes to maintain a playoff spot throughout the rest of the season, they must improve at both ends of the field and perform better on the road, which has been their Achilles' heel since entering the MLS in 2007.

With CONCACAF Champions League games on the horizon and the absence of several top-notch players leaving their team for international duty, TFC's roster depth will be put to the test in the coming weeks. The old adage that offense wins games but defense wins championships should be a philosophy that TFC adheres to during the stretch run.

Silverdoolar Soccer Betting News


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.